CLARITY Act Faces Uncertainty as Odds Drop to 25% Amidst Trump’s Ethics Review

CLARITY Act Faces Uncertainty as Odds Drop

The chances for the CLARITY Act’s passage have fallen to 25% as the White House considers a bipartisan ethics proposal crucial to whether the Senate engages with the crypto market structure bill before the upcoming August recess.

Current Odds and Political Dynamics

Traders on Polymarket are now assigning a 25% probability that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, a decrease from 30% earlier this week. This shift reflects increased uncertainty surrounding ongoing negotiations and the limited time left on the Senate calendar.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci expressed optimism that President Donald Trump will approve the revised ethics proposal put forward by Sen. Thom Tillis and Sen. Ruben Gallego. He remarked on X, stating, “If POTUS ultimately signs off, which I think he will, who will stand in the way of Clarity?” He cautioned that those obstructing the bill might face political repercussions in the November elections.

Details on the Ethics Proposal

The specifics of the ethics language negotiated by Senators Tillis and Gallego have not been publicly disclosed. However, it is anticipated to provide state attorneys general with a role in enforcing regulations on federal officials’ digital asset activities, addressing previous criticisms of an earlier proposal that granted enforcement authority solely to federal prosecutors.

Senate Democrats had previously opposed the earlier Republican-backed proposal, citing concerns over its enforcement mechanisms concerning conflicts of interest among federal officials involved in crypto-related ventures. The new proposal, which includes state-level enforcement, could potentially attract key Democratic votes.

Legislative Timeline and Competing Priorities

Despite the intention to advance the CLARITY Act, Senate leaders have yet to confirm any timeline for floor action. Competing legislative priorities, including nominations and government funding negotiations, may significantly impact the Senate’s schedule.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis noted that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has kept space reserved for the CLARITY Act on the Senate agenda, indicating a desire to address it before lawmakers exit Washington. However, no definitive schedule has been established.

The outcome of this legislative effort holds substantial implications for the US crypto industry, determining whether federal oversight involving the SEC and CFTC will be clarified this summer or left unresolved heading into the November elections.